You can also see my publications page to view,  sort, and filter my publications. Here is a simple list of my publications and working papers.

How Sanctions Reshaped Iran’s Economy: Sectoral Reallocation and Technology Downgrading, 2026

[SSRN] [PDF], with Reza Sahour

Abstract: Economic sanctions can affect development not only by reducing aggregate output but also by changing the composition of production. This paper studies how Iran’s post-2012 sanctions episode was associated with sectoral reallocation and manufacturing technology intensity. Using annual World Bank and UNIDO data for 1995–2023, we construct outcome-specific synthetic controls for real GDP, broad sectors, industrial subsectors, and manufacturing technology groups. Real GDP, industry, and services fall below their synthetic paths, with gaps that generally widen after sanctions were reimposed in 2018. Within industry, non-manufacturing activity shows the strongest underperformance. Within manufacturing, medium/high-technology value added displays a larger and more persistent shortfall than low- and medium-low-technology value added, and its share of total manufacturing also declines relative to a synthetic comparison. Agriculture does not show a comparable negative gap. The findings connect the macroeconomic costs of sanctions to a broader development concern: persistent external restrictions may weaken industrial upgrading as well as current output.

Return Migration and Human Capital Flows, 2024

R&R Nature Communications

[NBER] [PDF] [NBER Digest Non-technical Summary], with Amir Kermani and Timothy McQuade, 

Abstract: We bring to bear a novel dataset covering the employment history of about 450 million individuals from 180 countries to study return migration and the impact of skilled international migration on human capital stocks across countries. Return migration is a common phenomenon, with 38% of skilled migrants returning to their origin countries within 10 years. Return migration is significantly correlated with industry growth in the origin and destination countries, and is asymmetrically exposed to negative firm employment growth. Using an AKM-style model, we identify worker and country-firm fixed effects, as well as the returns to experience and education by location and current workplace. For workers in emerging economies, the returns to a year of experience in the United States are 59-204% higher than a year of experience in the origin country. Migrants to advanced economies are positively selected on ability relative to stayers, while within this migrant population, returnees exhibit lower ability. Simulations suggest that eliminating skilled international migration would have highly heterogeneous effects across countries, adjusting total (average) human capital stocks within a range of -60% to 40% (-3% to 4%)

The Distributional Effects of Climate Change: Evidence from Iran, 2021

[SSRN] [PDF], with Toshi H. Arimura, Mohammad Vesal and Seyed Farshad Fatemi

Abstract: Climate change has heterogeneous effects on poor and wealthy households due to differences in vulnerabilities and exposure. However, few papers provide estimates on the magnitude of climate impacts across the income distribution. In this paper, we combine 21 rounds of household expenditure and income surveys from Iran for the period from 1998 to 2018 to construct a large sample of rural and urban households. Using within-district variation in temperature, we show that a one-degree Celsius increase in annual temperature leads to 8.1 and 4.7 percent decreases in rural and urban per capita expenditures, respectively. We find that the impact is twice the average effect for the poorest decile. Furthermore, we provide evidence that available household resources that determine vulnerabilities play a more important role than the difference in exposure to climate change. Our findings suggest that compensatory policies should target the poorest households, as poverty is a stronger determinant of impact than being an agricultural worker or residing in already hot areas.

Absolute Intragenerational Income Mobility in Iran, 2023

The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 90, 38-50

[Link] [PDF] [SSRN] [Video], with Mohammad Sadra Heydari.

Abstract: Absolute intragenerational income mobility (AIIM), defined as the percentage of households with higher income compared to their previous year, is a complementary index to aggregate measures such as income per capita and the Gini index to show a more detailed picture of an economy. Panel data on household income is necessary to estimate AIIM, but it is not usually available in developing countries and, in the long run, for most developed countries. In this paper, we employ copula modeling and cross-sectional income data in a developing country, Iran, and well approximate the mobility estimated by panel data for the years 2011–2019 and then utilize the copula method to extend our estimation backward until 1991. Our findings reveal that absolute intragenerational income mobility in Iran for urban households fluctuates between 40 % and 62 %. AIIM is higher for low-income households.

The Impact of Short-term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution on Test Scores in Iran, 2020

Journal of Population and Environment

[Link] [PDF] [SSRN], with Mohammad Vesal and Seyed Farshad Fatemi

Abstract: Air pollution in urban centers has become a key public concern around the world. Apart from its adverse health effects, air pollution could impact less visible outcomes like cognitive performance. Standardized tests are a fixture of all education settings that are susceptible to pollution shocks because they require high cognitive function. Given that test scores are widely used as signals by parents, employers, and education institutions, pollution shocks could render tests unfair and unreliable. In this paper, we combine pollution data with test scores from a large testing institution in Iran between 2012 and 2017 to quantify the impact of short-term exposure to air pollution on test performance. We use visibility as an instrument for exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 on the exam day in a student fixed effects specification to study the impact of PM. We find that a one standard deviation increase in PM10 and PM2.5 is respectively associated with 0.047 and 0.029 of a standard deviation decrease in test scores. The effect is larger for males and analytical subjects. The results are robust to the inclusion of other pollutants and several specification checks.